Year-end inventory of BYD articles ｜ The monopoly pattern is no longer mixed, and the mainstream high-end breakthrough is blocked

Editor’s lead: In 2023, BYD continued to write the story of sales growth, but while sales were at a high level, BYD’s challenges began to emerge one by one. Since the second half of the year, its growth rate in the domestic market has obviously slowed down, and the continuous entry of mixed competing products has begun to impact BYD’s market position. The high-end camp represented by Tengshi brand is outside the MPV market and has not yet opened its voice in the mainstream market.

Sales rush and challenges emerge.

There is no doubt that BYD will continue to be the domestic new energy sales champion in 2023. In 2023, with its reputation and leading position in the new energy market, the price/performance ratio of the "Champion Edition" model under the price war, and the explosion of cars in the pure electric field, BYD once again hit a record high in terms of sales volume and performance. According to official data, in the first 11 months, BYD sold 2.683 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 64.29%.

At the same time, BYD’s third quarterly report shows that in the first three quarters of this year, BYD achieved revenue of 422.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.75%; The net profit of returning to the mother was 21.367 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129.47%. According to brokerage analysis, BYD’s bicycle profit in the third quarter reached 11,000 yuan. Based on this data, BYD has also become the most powerful car company in the domestic market, surpassing SAIC.

The root cause of the big increase in performance is still the sales volume. BYD once said that "the new energy automobile industry continued its good growth momentum, and the company’s new energy automobile sales continued to hit a record high, ranking first in the global new energy automobile sales."

Horizontally, from the listing of BYD Qin PLUS DM-i 2023 Champion Edition on February 10th this year, it sounded the horn that BYD further eroded the market share of fuel vehicles. The banner of "the same price of oil and electricity" played by the champion version of Qin PLUS DM-i 2023 has become a major attraction for consumers of fuel vehicles, which has driven the sales of Qin PLUS DM-i to rise all the way, with the monthly sales reaching as high as 30,000+.

The A-class plug-in hybrid sedan sold from 99,800 yuan, with its outstanding cost performance, constantly stirred the price line of the joint venture A-class fuel sedan. At the same time, after the Qin PLUS DM-i 2023 champion version, BYD successively launched a series of champion models such as Song PLUS DM-i champion version, Song PRO champion version and seal champion version.

BYD’s core idea is to "increase distribution and reduce prices", and to speed up the market share of joint-venture fuel vehicles in the context of intensified price wars. In the first 11 months, the independent brand market led by BYD has reached 51.7%, while the market share of mainstream joint venture brands has dropped to 34.5%. BYD grabbed the biggest cake in the process of new energy encroaching on the fuel vehicle market, which laid the lower limit for BYD.

However, while BYD’s sales are going to a high level, from the perspective of dismantling its development trend, BYD’s challenges are becoming increasingly prominent. The slowdown in sales growth, the sniper of competing products and the high-end luxury market represented by Tengshi are all problems that BYD has exposed.

Surrounded by heroes, BYD

Compared with last year, BYD’s monthly sales volume is still growing substantially, which is beyond reproach. However, in the second half of 2023, BYD’s month-on-month growth rate slowed down significantly. Among them, in October and November, BYD’s month-on-month growth rate was less than 100, which reflected that BYD’s growth was also facing strong resistance. The core factor is that the hybrid field is being challenged. BYD, once a dominant company in the hybrid field, has gradually increased its competitors.

In fact, in 2023, BYD continued to move forward, and a considerable number of factors depended on the increment of new models. For example, BYD Seagull cut into the A0 pure electric car market with a class of 100,000 and became the dominant market segment. BYD Seagull was listed on April 26th this year, and it sold more than 40,000 vehicles for three consecutive months. The cumulative sales volume during the year was as high as 229,600 vehicles, which was the biggest increase of BYD during the year.

In the hybrid market, judging from the competitive situation of sub-models, the trend of independent brands besieging BYD has taken shape: BYD’s main three models, such as Qin, Song and Han, have been besieged by domestic car companies in different dimensions, and Song PLUS in the first half of the year faced competition from Xiaolong MAX, Yinhe L7 and Deep Blue S7; At present, the sales volume of Deep Blue S in July is stable at around 7,000 vehicles, while the steady monthly sales volume of Galaxy L7 is above 8,000 vehicles.

In the A-class plug-in sedan market where Qin PLUS DM-i is located, Yinhe L6, Qiyuan A05, Wuling Xingguang and other products have successively joined the battle. In the A-level hybrid market, the latest monthly sales volume of Yinhe L6 has climbed to the level of 5,000 vehicles. Qiyuan A05 and Wuling Starlight have just been listed, and their sales volume is also climbing.

BYD, which took the lead in the new energy market by relying on plug-in technology, once monopolized about 62% of the market share in the plug-in market (in 2022). Since the beginning of this year, with the landing of plug-in products corresponding to other independent brands, BYD’s share in the plug-in market has begun to shrink. From January to November this year, BYD sold 1.288 million plug-in vehicles in batches, accounting for 53% of the 2.394 million plug-in market.

On the whole, although other self-owned brands’ blended products have not yet risen to threaten BYD’s position, with the increasing investment of Great Wall, Chang ‘an, Geely and other car groups since 2023, consumers have been given a new choice different from BYD in the blended market. And as the most dynamic market segment in 2023, it is attracting more car companies to invest, including joint venture brands and other independent brands.

In the hybrid market, Chery, which has experienced rapid sales growth in the past two years, also voiced strongly, "The hybrid market without Chery Automobile is an incomplete hybrid market." Since 2023, the sales volume of Chery Group has reached 1.66 million, returning to the independent head camp. Yin Tongyue said that he would enter the top position in new energy in 2024, which may mean that the hybrid market will face more intense market competition next year.

Tengshi impacts SUV and is frustrated again.

In the new energy market in 2023, on the one hand, BYD continued to promote the growth of the mass market through price war, on the other hand, it laid out the high-end market and tapped the increment of the high-end market, including Tengshi, Equation Leopard and Wangwang, which all entered the new node of operation this year. Equation Leopard and Wangwang ushered in the first car listing, and Tengshi also opened an SUV track outside MPV, but Tengshi’s performance was not fully successful.

In the high-end market, BYD’s representative Tengshi has made great achievements in the MPV market. Tengshi D9, which was listed at the end of last year, has continued its high-light performance this year. The emergence of Tengshi D9 has broken the domestic MPV market pattern in one fell swoop. In the first November of this year, Tengshi D9 accumulated 108,000 vehicles in retail sales, surpassing Buick GL8′ s 107,000 vehicles. It is not an idiotic dream to win this year’s MPV market sales champion.

However, Tengshi encountered "Waterloo" in the SUV market for mainstream users. In July and August this year, Tengshi launched two SUV models, Tengshi N7 and N8, which did not achieve the expected success. Since its listing, Tengshi N7 has sold 5,402 vehicles, while N8 has sold 1,819 vehicles, which is not in line with Zhao Changjiang, general manager of Tengshi Sales Division.

Prior to this, Zhao Changjiang once said that "Tengshi N7′ s goal is to sell 10,000 units per month" and "the monthly delivery volume is about 5,000-6,000 units in the initial delivery period, and it is expected to reach over 10,000 units in September and October. Together with the N8 launched at the end of the year, Tengshi will be able to reach the level of monthly sales of 30,000 vehicles. " The failure of the N7 and N8 models has also dragged down the achievement of Tengshi’s annual target. According to the plan, Tengshi will challenge the annual sales of 150,000 vehicles in 2023, but now it has accumulated sales of 115,900 vehicles.

The year 2023 is coming to an end. On the whole, BYD’s leading position in the new energy market still exists, but the challenges it faces are also increasing objectively.

Judging from the disclosed plans, 2024 will be a great year for BYD’s products, including the replacement of core models and endless new products, such as Dynasty/Ocean, Tengshi and Equation Leopard, and the fifth-generation DM-i’s boarding blessing in technology, so as to upgrade from products to technology. Whether this can help BYD solve the challenges that have gradually emerged remains to be seen.

At the Guangzhou Auto Show, BYD executives said, "In 2024, new energy vehicles may enter the era of Armageddon at any time."