New energy vehicles are an industry that we have always attached great importance to and tracked. This report was written in November last year, and its judgments on the callback of manufacturers in the middle and lower reaches and the change of valuation logic in the automobile industry are still correct. I hope this research report can help you invest in 2022.
This article was first published on December 14, 2021, and some of its contents still have reference significance, so it is reissued.
Part I: Re-offer
(1) Overall trend: α and β Qi Fei, 2021 is a capital year for the automobile industry.
In the selection of observation objects, we combed the whole new energy industry chain from upstream, middle and downstream, and included it in the popular tracks such as hydrogen fuel cells for analysis.From the industrial chain division, we divide the new energy industrial chain into four parts: downstream, namely, new energy vehicles (EV, PHEV) and related charging equipment; Midstream, that is, power lithium-ion batteries and motors used in new energy electric vehicles; Upstream, that is, the anode material, cathode material, diaphragm and electrolyte that make up the power lithium battery. In addition, we have included the combing of two popular plates: hydrogen fuel cell and skateboard chassis.
In 2021, the performance of the main targets of the new energy automobile industry chain is eye-catching, and the market is riding in all sectors.Benefiting from the fact that the overall sales volume of the automobile market is still stable and the market share of new energy vehicles is eye-catching, it has driven the valuation and profits of the industrial chain of new energy vehicles to rise, pushing the market of the sector to rise all the way. From the market trend, during the year (from January 1, 2021 to December 1, 2021), the weighted average growth rate of the total market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shenwan automobile sector and new energy automobile industry chain was -10.96%, 19.92% and 41.72% respectively; Horizontally, the increase of the industrial chain of new energy vehicles can rank third in the first-class classification of Shenwan, second only to electrical equipment (which is highly coincident with the industrial chain of new energy vehicles) and non-ferrous metals (driven by the commodity market during the year); The top five growth sectors were electrical equipment (50.1%), nonferrous metals (48.2%), new energy (41.72%), mining (31.3%) and public utilities (30.0%).
Some track investment opportunities have narrowed, and the share of "sub-leading" configuration has increased.The concentration of overall institutional positions in the new energy vehicle sector has increased, and the head target of subdivided tracks has been favored by institutions. However, from the wind direction, the main force of institutional allocation has shifted from the first leader to the "second leader", which shows to some extent that some track investment opportunities have narrowed. In terms of institutional positions (including legal person shares), compared with 2020Q3, 2021Q3 includes charging piles such as Wanma (+10.84%), Dangsheng Technology (+6.61%), Putailai (+15.84%), Tianci Materials (+19.75%) and Xinzhoubang (+8.41%).
(2) Profitability: The overall profitability has been restored, and the upstream profits have increased rapidly due to price factors.
After the epidemic, the overall profit of the industrial chain recovered well, GAGR the net profit of the sector reached 42.4% in two years.According to the pool data of the industrial chain standard of new energy vehicles, the overall net profit of new energy vehicles in Q3 will increase by 63.8% year-on-year in 2020 (the epidemic situation was low in cardinal utility last year), and the overall net profit of the sector will reach 42.4% in two years. The main targets are godsend materials (GAGR+315.4% in two years), Shanshan (GAGR+210.5% in two years), German Nano (GAGR+95.3% in two years), Xinzhoubang (GAGR+90.4% in two years), Rongbai Technology (GAGR+85.7% in two years) and Dangsheng Technology (GAGR+85.7% in two years)
The upstream plate benefited from the influence of downstream growth and superimposed price factors, and its profit increased rapidly.In terms of industrial chain links, the downstream (vehicle, charging pile), midstream (battery, motor) and upstream (electrode, diaphragm and electrolyte) have a year-on-year growth rate of 22.1%, 34.9% and 265.5%, respectively, corresponding to Q3, and the GAGR is 25.7%, 30.4% and 97.9% respectively, corresponding to two years.
(3) Valuation: The double logic main line confirms that the valuation of high-volume and high-tech companies has risen significantly.
The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is still firm, the downstream vehicle valuation is rising, and the upstream lithium battery industry chain valuation is slightly digested.According to the Wind data, the rolling P/E ratio (integral method) of Shanghai-Shenzhen 300, Shenwan first-class automobile classification and self-built new energy industry chain during the year (January 1, 2021-December 1, 2021) increased or decreased by -21.27%, -0.59% and -0.82% respectively, corresponding to the PE(TTM) at the end of the year of 12 times and 12 times respectively. In terms of industrial chain, the rolling P/E ratios of downstream (only counting the whole vehicle), midstream (battery, motor) and upstream (anode and cathode, separator and electrolyte) during the corresponding year (January 1, 2021-December 1, 2021) are 18.72%, -16.65% and -26.01% respectively.
Confirmation of downstream vehicle valuation by dual logic mainline.First, the traditional "manufacturing" valuation logic of automobile enterprises has changed into "consumption" logic, and the valuation center has a positive correlation with automobile sales, and high market share brings high profit growth expectations; Second, the valuation of some new car upstarts and new car-making power companies presents "scientific and technological" logic, and auto companies with high technical barriers and good product experience can get higher valuations.
(1) Total amount: In the short term, the total amount of automobile consumption in China has peaked, and the industry is in an active destocking cycle.
China is the largest automobile consumer in the world, with sales of all kinds of automobiles exceeding 25 million.China has become the world’s largest automobile market for 12 consecutive years since its total automobile sales surpassed that of the United States in 2009. According to the statistics of the International Automobile Manufacturers Association (OICA), in 2020, under the epidemic situation, China’s automobile sales exceeded 25 million, ranking first in the world. In 2020, the top five automobile sales countries are: China (25.31 million vehicles), the United States (20.24 million vehicles), Japan (4.59 million vehicles), Germany (3.26 million vehicles) and India (2.93 million vehicles). The annual automobile sales of China has surpassed the sum of the second-ranked United States and the third-ranked Japan. At the same time of high volume, on the one hand, among the major automobile markets (China, the United States, Japan and Germany), only China and the United States are still expanding; on the other hand, according to the data of the International Automobile Manufacturers Association (OICA), since 2011, the sales of China, the United States, Japan and Germany have increased by 36.78%, 55.25%, 9.22% and -6.85% respectively. Especially after the outbreak, all major automobile markets were hit. In 2020, the annual sales of China, the United States, Japan and Germany will decrease by 1.9%, 18.5%, 11.5% and 18.6% respectively compared with the previous year. Due to the strong overall market resilience and good epidemic control, China’s automobile sales are less affected than other countries.
In the short and medium term, the sales volume of passenger cars will basically be capped in 2018; Car sales showed signs of marginal recovery during the year.According to the data of generalized passenger cars, the total sales volume of generalized passenger cars in 2018-2020 was 22.739 million, 21.015 million and 19.59 million. After the sales volume of passenger cars peaked in 2018, the market shrank obviously. Judging from the high-frequency data, the cumulative sales volume of generalized passenger cars from January to October in 2021 was 16.411 million, which exceeded the total sales volume in 2020 (15.16 million) after the outbreak of the epidemic, slightly lower than that in 2019 (16.877 million) before the epidemic, and automobile sales showed signs of marginal recovery.
According to the seasonal fluctuation, the sales volume of generalized passenger cars will reach more than 20 million in 2021.Under normal circumstances, the annual automobile sales fluctuate seasonally, and the sales volume in the first quarter to the fourth quarter is usually "high-low-low-high". During the autumn auto show in the third quarter, automobile sales began to increase in volume, and the impact of dealer sales at the end of the year superimposed consumers’ demand for car purchases for the New Year. The fourth quarter or the first quarter is usually a one-year sales peak. Due to the seasonal fluctuation of automobile sales in the whole year, we selected the three years before the outbreak as samples, and set January of each year as the benchmark to observe the three complete annual samples of January-December 2017, January-December 2018 and January-December 2019. According to the results, it can be seen that the sales volume of generalized passenger cars in each month of the year does have obvious periodic fluctuations compared with the multiple of January each year. We can get the seasonal factor of automobile consumption by averaging the three-year samples, and calculate the sales volume of passenger cars in November and December through the seasonal factor. According to estimates, the sales volume of generalized passenger cars in 2021 is expected to reach more than 20 million.
The passenger car market has entered an active destocking cycle.Compared with other consumer goods, cars have two obvious characteristics, so they have the conditions to produce inventory cycles. First, the automobile production process is characterized by "heavy industry". Automobile manufacturers have huge production lines, large capital investment and long cycle span of increasing or decreasing production capacity; Second, the sales model is relatively special. Most of China’s automobile sales adopt 4S mode, and the overall inventory of dealers and manufacturers is biased, so it takes a long time to increase or decrease the inventory. Under the action of these two characteristics, the gap between supply and demand in the automobile market will take a long time to repair, which will produce obvious fluctuations, thus leading to periodic changes in inventory. According to our division of automobile inventory cycle, China’s automobile industry has been in an active destocking cycle at the end of 2021 (that is, the total demand is reduced, and dealers and manufacturers take the initiative to clean up the backlog of inventory). With the confirmation of the bottom of demand, the automobile industry will reopen the new cycle of demand recovery, and the industry will experience a passive destocking cycle (the total demand is picking up, and the squeezed inventory is digested by the market), and the overall demand will pick up, or it will show a high degree of prosperity, which will benefit traditional automobile enterprises under the logic of "consumption".
The opportunity to start a new cycle is the recovery of automobile demand, but it takes time for the economy to warm up and wait for the arrival of a new boom cycle.The delay of epidemic situation, automobile consumption and chip shortage aggravated the fluctuation of inventory cycle. On the one hand, the demand for the epidemic backlog was basically released in the second half of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, so the car sales began to fall in the third quarter compared with the same period of last year. On the other hand, the shortage of chips leads to the shortage of inventory, which leads to the continuous low inventory. The sluggish domestic demand and the overlapping inventory cleaning have aggravated the fluctuation of the active destocking cycle, and the demand inventory has both declined, making it difficult for the new cycle to rise. It still takes time for sales to pick up now, and the new cycle must wait for the economy to take the lead in picking up. Under optimistic expectations, the bottom of demand may be confirmed in the fourth quarter of this year.
(2) New energy: From policy-driven to market-driven, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is close to 20%.
The new energy vehicle market is basically mature, and gradually enters the policy exit period, and the industry officially turns from policy-driven to market-driven.Looking back on the development history of new energy vehicles in China, the gradual popularization of electric vehicles in China has gone through many different development periods. First, in the lead-in period, the new energy vehicle industry was launched by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2009, which released the "Demonstration and Application Project of 1000 Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles in Ten Cities", that is, the policy popularization of electric vehicles in the government (G) and large enterprises (B) was completed through financial subsidies, with the aim of making the operation scale of new energy vehicles in China account for 10% of the automobile market share by 2012. Second, in the growth period, that is, the subsidy-driven stage, through financial subsidies to individual users’ consumption terminals and a loose purchase restriction policy, new energy vehicles will be gradually popularized from B-end and G-end to individual users’ C-end. Third, the maturity period, that is, the development of the field after the subsidy retreats from policy-driven to market-driven. At the beginning of 2019, the four departments jointly issued the Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles, and the new energy subsidies retreated by 50%. "Cheating" no longer exists, and new energy automobile enterprises have undergone a major reshuffle. Fourth, the market-driven stage. Now, with the advent of the post-subsidy era, the new energy vehicle market has completed the passive cleaning after the subsidy decline, and has officially transitioned from subsidy-driven to market-driven. So far, it has developed into a strategic emerging industry with a large scale, a high degree of marketization and a relatively complete industrial chain development. In 2021, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 2.8 million, and the monthly penetration rate is close to 20%, which will also become the first year of policy support and market-driven differentiation.
Although the total automobile consumption is capped in the short term, the new energy vehicle market is hot, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles approaching 20% in a single month and the annual sales volume expected to exceed 2.8 million.According to the data of China Automobile Association, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 (January-October) was 2.31%, 4.45%, 4.95%, 5.96% and 14.23% respectively. In August, September and October of 2021, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 19.78%, 19.47% and 18.24% respectively, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in a single month approached 20%; According to the calculation, taking the data of 2019 before the epidemic as the seasonal fluctuation benchmark, we predict that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 is expected to exceed 2.8 million.
(3) Structure: the rise of independent brands will boost the high prosperity of the new energy vehicle market.
From the category of new energy vehicles, electric vehicles are still the absolute main force; The policy side of hydrogen energy vehicles began to exert its strength.From the perspective of technology path, according to the data of China Industrial Information Network, the current (2020) market share of various technology paths is pure electric (BEV) > common hybrid (HEV) > plug-in hybrid (PHEV) > > fuel cell; Among them, the annual sales of ordinary hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and fuel cell powered passenger cars in 2020 are 244,261, 245,157, 955,541 and 0 respectively, with corresponding market shares of 1.23%, 1.23%, 4.81% and 0.00% respectively, and electric vehicles are still the absolute main force. Due to the high use cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, insufficient popularity of hydrogen refueling stations, insufficient strength of self-owned brand hydrogen vehicles and other factors, the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars has been almost zero since 2015, and the market of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars has not been officially launched so far. However, according to the "Technology Roadmap for Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles", it is estimated that by 2035, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach about 1 million, and commercial vehicles will take the lead in realizing hydrogen power transformation. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, the actual number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China from 2015 to 2020 is 0, 10, 639, 1911, 3438, 6175 and 7352 respectively. If the number of fuel cell vehicles reaches 1 million in 2035, the GAGR of hydrogen energy vehicles will reach 38.8% from 2020 to 2035.
Entry-level and mid-range new energy vehicles dominate the market.From the market share of new energy vehicles at all levels, the order is A (compact car) > B (medium car) > A00 (mini car) > A0 (small car) > C (medium and large car). From the trend point of view, in the past two years, A00 (mini-car) and B (medium-sized car) have grown rapidly, which is contrary to the "two poles" situation of high-end and low-end car sales of fuel vehicles. The polarization of market demand for fuel vehicles mainly comes from the fact that the upgrading of automobile consumption in first-and second-tier cities drives the sales of high-end cars and luxury brands to rise, and the popularity of automobile consumption in rural areas drives the market share of low-end and functional passenger cars to soar. The consumers of new energy vehicles are mostly concentrated in the first-and second-tier cities where the charging infrastructure is relatively complete and there are restrictions on the purchase of fuel vehicles. Therefore, the functional demand when buying a car has become the main consideration, which has driven the sales of A00 low-cost new energy vehicles to rise; At the same time, because the leading models of major manufacturers in the market are concentrated in A-class (compact car) and B-class (medium car), the high-end market of electric vehicles has not been favored and recognized by high-end consumers on a large scale, and mid-range cars dominate the market.
With the strong rise of independent brands, the competition among waist manufacturers tends to be fierce.In terms of car companies, the top five car companies in terms of sales of new energy vehicles (including BEV and PHEV) from January to October in 2021 are BYD (410,801 vehicles), Tesla (349,397 vehicles), SAIC-GM-Wuling (341,757 vehicles), SAIC-GM-Wuling (133,911 vehicles) and Great Wall Motor (977 vehicles). From the perspective of market concentration, from January to October in 2019, 2020 and 2021, the automobile sales CR5 of new energy automobile enterprises were 59.5%, 49.1% and 56.6%, respectively, showing a downward trend, and the competition among waist manufacturers became fierce.
The second part: carding
(1) Complete vehicle: High-quality vehicles are concentrated on the stage, which will boost the sales of new energy vehicles at the micro level.
Tesla’s status remains the same, and BYD’s performance is eye-catching, and both of them occupy the main market share.According to the data of the Federation, the top five sales of pure electric vehicles (BEV) from January to October 2021 were Wuling Hongguang MINI EV(325166 vehicles), Tesla Model 3(216583 vehicles), Tesla Model Y(132814 vehicles) and BYD Han EV(66867 vehicles). The top five sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) are BYD Qin PLUS DM(78316 vehicles), BYD Song DM(49291 vehicles), BYD Tang DM(31439 vehicles), BYD Han DM(24256 vehicles) and MG eHS(20344 vehicles).
2021 is the year of new energy automobile products, with low total price and high performance products frequently.The appearance of high-quality vehicles explains the phenomenon of high permeability of new energy vehicles in 2021 from the micro level. In 2021, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, Tesla Model 3, BYD Qin PLUS BEV and other market-leading products have a longer cruising range, higher configuration and more cost-effective performance at a relatively low price from the perspective of calibrated cruising range.
The profitability of major manufacturers has been repaired well, and the growth rate of GAGR has turned positive in two years.Take BYD (the main products are Han EV and Qin PLUS BEV) and Great Wall Motor (the main products are Euler Good Cat), the Q1-3 performance of BYD in 2019 -2021 is 1.895 billion yuan (GAGR-26.0% in two years), 4.902 billion yuan (GAGR51.1% in two years) and 3.297 billion yuan respectively. Great Wall Motor’s performance was 2.951 billion yuan (GAGR1.0% in two years), 2.587 billion yuan (GAGR-19.2% in two years) and 4.945 billion yuan (GAGR29.4% in two years) respectively. The new energy vehicle market turned to demand-driven, and benefited from the rebound in consumer demand for passenger cars in the post-epidemic period. The net profit of the two major domestic manufacturers turned positive in two years, excluding the low base and high reading effect of the epidemic. The expected growth rate also led to a significant increase in the valuation of related OEMs, achieving a double increase in valuation performance.
(2) Charging pile: The "new infrastructure" boosts the penetration rate of superimposed new energy vehicles, and the track growth is confirmed.
"New Infrastructure" empowers the charging pile track and confirms long-term growth.In recent years, relevant ministries and commissions have continuously paid attention to strengthening the charging infrastructure of new energy vehicles, that is, the construction of charging piles. In 2020, the central government also included it in the hypothetical planning of "new infrastructure" (5G base station construction, UHV, high-speed rail and urban rail transit, artificial intelligence, big data center, industrial Internet, and charging piles for new energy vehicles). With the blessing of the new infrastructure policy, the charging pile market has increased sharply. As a supporting facility for the promotion of new energy vehicles, the charging pile market is expected to usher in a golden period of development.
The private pile mode led by car enterprises and the power station mode led by operators run together, and the market share of private piles is dominant.From the industrial chain, the upstream, middle and downstream links of the charging pile industrial chain and their corresponding modes are as follows: upstream-charging equipment and module suppliers such as Teruide, Guodian Nanrui and Xuji Electric; Midstream-charging station operators such as TELD (Teruide subsidiary), State Grid, Star Charging, etc. purchase charging equipment from upstream manufacturers and charge charging fees for downstream new energy vehicles; Downstream-major new energy vehicle companies, car users can charge from the operators of midstream charging stations, and car companies can also provide charging equipment to car users by purchasing charging equipment from upstream equipment suppliers. From the specific business model, the business model involving charging piles can be divided into two categories. One is the operator-led model, such as State Grid and TEL, which provide charging services to car users by purchasing charging equipment to earn fees; The second is the leading mode of car companies. For example, Tesla and Weilai provide charging pile setting services to car buyers. This mode does not directly generate income for car companies, but can help car companies complete ecological chain integration and improve overall service quality and user experience.
The total construction of charging piles in China is highly correlated with the maintenance of new energy vehicles, and there has been a trend of heavy volume.In terms of total scale, the total construction of domestic charging piles has exceeded 2.5 million units. According to the statistics of China Charging Alliance, the total construction of charging piles in China in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 (October) was 204,000, 446,000, 777,000, 1.223 million, 1.672 million and 2.253 million respectively. From the structural point of view, the share of private charging piles has increased significantly. Charging piles can be divided into public charging piles (charging piles set up and operated by charging station operators, shopping malls, office buildings and other entities) and private charging piles (charging piles set up by electric vehicle companies or car owners themselves in personal parking spaces for car owners’ use only). According to the data of the charging alliance, the share of private charging piles (the number of private charging piles/the total number of public and private charging piles) increased from 33.0% in 2016 to 61.1% in 2020, and the share of private charging piles increased significantly. Judging from the specific market structure, taking public charging piles as an example, the top three charging station operators are Star Charging (238,597 units), Special Calls (232,121 units) and State Grid (196,484 units), with obvious head effect.
Based on the "pile-vehicle" ratio, it is conservatively estimated that the charging pile market will have more than five times the space in the next five years.In 2015, the "Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015-2020)" issued by the General Office of the State Council planned that the ratio of "pile to vehicle" would be 1: 1 by the end of 2020, but this value has not yet been realized (only about 34%). By conservative estimation, it is assumed that the number of new energy vehicles will be 20 million by 2025, and the "pile-vehicle" ratio will be 50% by 2025. According to this calculation, the total number of charging piles will reach more than 10 million by 2025, corresponding to GAGR of 43.01%.
Judging from the performance of the capital market, with the demand for charging piles driven by new energy vehicles rising, the valuation and performance of the main related targets have doubled.From the perspective of profitability, the main targets involved in the charging pile industry chain are driven by the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, and the net profit still maintains a certain growth rate. The corresponding net profit of Guodian Nanrui and Xuji Electric 2021Q3 increased by 24.0% and 19.2% respectively. Teruide is subject to the star charging and the state grid’s run on the market share of its charging pile operator’s special call, and the cost of charging piles in the early stage has increased. The net profit in 2021Q3 was -65.3% year-on-year. However, with the recovery of the early cost of charging piles, the charging station has a high industry prosperity, and its profitability is expected to narrow and stop falling. Judging from the capital market valuation, the PE(TTM) of Teruide, Guodian Nanrui and Xuji Electric increased by 52%, 72% and 83% respectively by the end of November, and the industry growth expectation rose, driving the valuation trend to rise.
(1) Power battery: The overall situation has been set, and the leader is always strong, so be alert to the risk of short-term and medium-term valuation callback.
Cathode material is that core factor to distinguish the performance of pow battery products. Our common secondary lithium batteries mainly rely on the back-and-forth intercalation and deintercalation of lithium ions between the positive and negative electrodes to realize energy storage and release. From the perspective of composition and structure, lithium-ion batteries are mainly composed of four parts: first, the cathode material is the key to determine the performance of power battery products, accounting for 30% to 40% of the cost of lithium-ion batteries (GGII data), which directly affects the energy density and performance of lithium battery packs. Common cathode materials include lithium cobaltate, lithium manganate, Ferrous lithium phosphate and ternary materials; Second, the negative electrode plays the role of energy storage and release. At present, the negative electrode material is mainly graphite, which accounts for a relatively low proportion in the cost of lithium battery, and the technical barrier is slightly lower than that of the positive electrode. The third is the diaphragm. The main function of the diaphragm is to separate the anode and cathode of the battery, and it has electronic insulation while maintaining ionic conductivity, so as to realize the mechanical isolation of insulation between the anode and cathode. Fourthly, electrolyte, which plays the role of transporting charge between positive and negative electrodes, affects the energy density, power density, wide temperature application, cycle life, safety performance and other factors of lithium battery pack.
From the structural point of view, lithium iron phosphate batteries are rising rapidly. It is estimated that the total installed capacity of power batteries will increase by about 35% in 2022.In terms of market volume, the total installed capacity of various power batteries from January to October in 2021 was 107.45GWh, an increase of 168.1% compared with 40.07GWh in the same period in 2020. From the perspective of demand structure, lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary material battery are divided into two markets, accounting for almost all the market share. From January to October 2021, the installed capacity of ternary material and Ferrous lithium phosphate was 54.05GWh and 53.21GWh respectively, and the ternary material/Ferrous lithium phosphate ratio was 1.02 (from January to October 2020, the ratio was 2.11), benefiting from lower cost and technological upgrading (BYD blade battery). Through the calculation of the growth rate of electric vehicles, assuming that the total passenger car market remains unchanged in 2022, the total installed capacity of power batteries in 2022 can reach 35.14% compared with that in 2021, based on the 20% penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales in 2022 (the value is about 14.8% in 2021).
The competition pattern of manufacturers tends to be stable, and the head effect is obvious.According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in the first three quarters of 2021, the top ten enterprises in China’s power battery loading capacity were Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, BYD, AVIC Lithium Battery, LG New Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Honeycomb Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Tafel New Energy, Funeng Technology and Jiewei Power. From the perspective of market concentration, the installed pattern of power lithium batteries is concentrated in head manufacturers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited and self-supply core manufacturers such as BYD. According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance and GGII, the market concentration of power lithium battery manufacturers in CR10 will be 74%, 84% and 93% respectively. Among them, the power lithium battery manufacturer CR10 jumped from about 81% three years ago to 93%, and the CR10 in 2018 -2020 was 83%, 88% and 93% respectively. In the first three quarters of 2021, a total of 54 power battery enterprises in China’s new energy vehicle market achieved vehicle loading facilities, 10 fewer than the same period of last year. The vehicle loading capacity of CR3, CR5 and CR10 power battery enterprises was 67.2GWh, 77.0GWh and 84.4GWh respectively, accounting for 73.0%, 83.6% and 91.7% of the total vehicle. With the further promotion of the marketization process of the new energy automobile industry, the concentration of power battery manufacturers has gradually increased, and the market concentration has gradually increased, and the trend of further marketing is very obvious. In the post-subsidy stage, the advantages of technical barriers and bargaining power are gradually highlighted.Heading trend of power lithium battery manufacturers will be further established. The first is the issue of technical barriers. From the technical point of view, the dispute between lithium iron and ternary is getting more and more fierce. With the division of lithium battery technology path, the stratification of manufacturing and technical level, which is beneficial to the development of head enterprises, the Matthew effect of manufacturers will be further highlighted. The second is the issue of supplier control. Due to the obvious phenomenon of headedness of power lithium battery manufacturers, the head manufacturers have a high degree of market monopoly, and have stronger bargaining power with upstream suppliers of anode and cathode materials, separators and even raw materials, which can realize a profit margin much larger than that of small and medium-sized manufacturers, and aggravate the trend of headedness of market competition pattern.
The supply chain pays attention to the demand of leading new energy vehicle companies.Head lithium battery manufacturers have strong bargaining power upstream and downstream, but the total demand for short-term and medium-term power lithium batteries of sub-head manufacturers comes from downstream OEMs, so the fundamentals of upstream battery suppliers of leading new energy vehicle enterprises are more supported. According to the annual reports of companies, First Electric Network, MarkLines and other data, according to the battery supplier information of Tesla, BYD, Tucki, Weilai, Toyota, BMW, Volkswagen, Geely and Guangzhou Automobile, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (8), BYD (2), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (1), Yiwei Lithium Energy (2) and Funeng Technology (1).
The technical side pays attention to BYD blade battery technology and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited CTP(Cell to Pack) technology to drive enterprise battery loading capacity.Under normal circumstances, ternary batteries have strong endurance, but the raw material of ternary batteries is cobalt, but the main origin of cobalt comes from Congo and the market is in a monopoly position. Due to the unstable supply of cobalt, its price is high, which drives the cost of ternary materials to be high. However, the cost of lithium iron phosphate battery is relatively low and the safety factor is higher, but the energy density is damaged in winter due to poor low temperature resistance.Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited scheme-CTP (cell to pack) reduces the manufacturing cost of ternary batteries.Generally, the battery Pack carried on an electric vehicle is assembled into a Module by cells, and then assembled into a battery pack, while CTP(Cell to Pack) is that the cells are directly integrated into the battery pack, thus eliminating the intermediate module link, increasing the energy density and reducing the manufacturing cost. According to the data disclosed by the information platform of Cheyan Society, the large integrated module based on 21700 adopted by Tesla Model 3 has reduced the battery cost by 35% compared with the previous one, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited CTP technology has the same effect.BYD’s plan-blade battery commission to improve the energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery.BYD’s blade battery research and development is based on lithium iron phosphate battery. The traditional battery mode is mostly cylindrical, and more gaps will be formed after the single batteries are stacked, and then the space utilization rate can only reach more than 40% except for the supporting cooling and supporting components. The flat blade battery can reduce the invalid gap between single cells, and the space utilization is as high as 60%, and the energy density is improved. At the same time, the increase of surface area can also play a greater role in heat dissipation.
The capital market is wary of the risk of short-term and medium-term valuation callback.In the short and medium term, the technology growth track, especially the new energy vehicles, power batteries and other industries and tracks, has accumulated a lot of gains. The track has been relatively crowded, and the fundamentals of many leading companies are strong, but the historical valuation water level is close to 80% or even more than 90%. Once the internal liquidity is not too loose and the external liquidity is slightly tightened, there may be a valuation market, and the risk is very worthy of attention.
(2) Motor: Self-made motors by leading car companies will become the mainstream, paying attention to new concepts and technologies such as hub motors.
Benefiting from China’s rare earth resources reserves, permanent magnet synchronous motors have become the mainstream of the market with high output and low cost.According to the technical scheme, common motors include DC motor, AC asynchronous motor and permanent magnet synchronous motor. Among them, DC motor is a direct-driven motor with relatively simple structure and good electromagnetic torque control characteristics, but it is easy to produce electric sparks on the commutator surface at high speed and heavy load, which is easy to produce electromagnetic interference. It is relatively common in the early development of electric vehicles and has been basically eliminated at present. Ac asynchronous motor is a motor that puts the rotor in a rotating magnetic field to get the rotating torque to drive the rotor to rotate. AC asynchronous motor is small in size, light in weight and low in price. However, under the condition of high-speed operation, the rotor of the motor is seriously heated, so it is necessary to ensure the motor to be cooled when working. At the same time, the drive and control system of asynchronous motor is very complicated and the cost of the motor itself is high, so it is mainly used in high-power electric commercial vehicles. Permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) is a synchronous motor that uses permanent magnets to establish the excitation magnetic field, which has a higher (power/mass) ratio, smaller volume and lighter weight. However, the production of rare earth PMSM requires rare earth materials, and the manufacturing cost is not stable. However, thanks to the relative abundance of rare earth resources, China prefers to use permanent magnet synchronous motor as the driving scheme for electric vehicles, and this path has become the most widely used motor scheme for electric vehicles today.
The total amount of motor loading will benefit with the increase of electric vehicle sales; It has become a trend for leading car companies to produce their own motors for their own use, which has squeezed the market share of waist and tail motor manufacturers.From the perspective of the total market size, the penetration dividend of new energy vehicles has driven the demand for motors to pick up. According to EVTank’s calculation data, it is estimated that the installed capacity of driving motors for new energy vehicles in China will reach 2.983 million units in 2021, up by 103.90% year-on-year, and the shipment of driving motors for new energy vehicles in China will exceed 10 million units by 2025. From the perspective of competition pattern, the replacement of domestic motors by mainstream car companies is just at the time, and the self-production and self-use of leading car companies has become a trend. According to the data disclosed by EVTank, BYD Motor’s market share will be 13.2% in 2020, ranking first; Tesla Motor’s market share is 9.9%, ranking second; Founder motor’s market share is 6.7%, ranking the top three; The market shares of Weiran Power, Ningbo Shuangxiu, Volkswagen, Nippon Denso, Borg Warner, Jinjing Electric and Shanghai Electric Drive have squeezed into the top ten in China, with market shares of 6.0%, 5.9%, 5.2%, 5.1%, 4.0%, 3.4% and 3.0% respectively.
The growth rate of the total number of tracks is still there, but under the trend of self-made motors by head car companies, non-head manufacturers are basically facing difficulties, so they should be alert to the risk of market share crowding out.From the perspective of the total market, the growth dividend of new energy vehicles is superimposed on the "double electric four-wheel drive" to release motor demand and boost the overall fundamental improvement of the industry. At present, the market share of new energy vehicles is Class A (compact car) > Class B (medium-sized car) > Class A00 (mini-car) > Class A0 (small car) > Class C (medium-sized car). Due to the rapid growth of Class B (medium-sized car), "double motors+four-wheel drive" has become the mainstream configuration, and doubling the demand for motors is expected to boost the high prosperity of the motor market. However, from the structural point of view, although the total motor market has great expansion potential, its market share is mainly occupied by self-made motors owned by head enterprises such as BYD, Tesla and Weilai. According to statistics and forecast data of EVTank, the market size of driving motors for new energy vehicles in China will be about 7.464 billion yuan in 2020. According to the market structure in 2020, the theoretical upper market share limits of Founder Motor and Precision Electric are 500 million and 254 million respectively, and there is little room for waist and tail motor enterprises, which basically faces a deep gap. At the same time, benefiting from the high sentiment of the market for the industrial chain of new energy vehicles, the relevant targets have accumulated a lot of gains in 2021, and the risk of market correction of waist and tail motor enterprises is worthy of attention.
Hub motor-a new concept technology deserves attention, and at the same time, we should be alert to the risk of technical path.Hub motor is a system that integrates the power system, transmission system and braking system of the car into the hub. On the one hand, the application of in-wheel motor can simplify the structure of the vehicle to the greatest extent, save more space and weight, and reduce the maintenance cost caused by complex mechanical structure. On the other hand, if each wheel of the vehicle is equipped with a hub motor, each tire can be driven independently, thus realizing a variety of complex driving modes. The differential lock and full-time four-wheel drive system of the traditional fuel vehicle will no longer have any advantages, so the hub motor has strong application value for special vehicles. However, at the same time, the hub motor increases the moment of inertia of the unsprung weight and the hub, which affects the vehicle handling performance. The physical space occupied by the hub motor system is too small, which leads to limited acceleration and braking performance. In addition, the hub motor system also has high requirements for sealing and heat dissipation. Therefore, it is also worthy of vigilance against the risk of technical path. We should adhere to the idea of early investment and implement the investment of the hub motor track. If the technical path is correct, we will win all, and if the path is wrong, we will lose all. As the hub motor technology is still not the mainstream path in the world, there are few domestic manufacturers. However, companies such as Asia Pacific, Wanan Technology and Tate Electromechanical Co., Ltd. have successively cooperated with international manufacturers to rapidly promote the development and application of hub-driven motors in new energy vehicles, among which Wanan Technology and Tate Electromechanical Co., Ltd. have successively withdrawn or been acquired.
(1) positive electrode: the core of lithium battery performance, Sanyuan and Ferrous lithium phosphate market achieve differentiated competition.
Cathode material is one of the key materials to determine the performance of lithium ion batteries.Cathode material has always been the core of lithium-ion battery, and the choice of cathode material directly determines the performance of the battery. The common cathode materials are mainly oxides, which have higher electrode potential than lithium and can ensure a higher open circuit voltage of the battery. From the cost point of view, the power battery is one of the most expensive integrated components of the whole vehicle, and the cathode material accounts for about 40% of the cost of lithium batteries. Whether from the cost point of view or the technical point of view, the cathode material is the core of lithium batteries. Because cathode materials have a great influence on battery performance, major manufacturers have long been committed to developing cathode materials with higher performance based on different technical solutions. Common cathode materials for lithium batteries mainly include lithium ternary (NCM), Ferrous lithium phosphate (LFP), lithium cobaltate (LCO) and lithium manganate (LMO). After years of technical path iteration, LFP and NCM now occupy almost all the market share of power batteries for new energy vehicles.
Ternary materials-"high nickel" is the development trend of ternary cathode materials, and "medium nickel ternary" is still the mainstream in the market at present.Ternary material is the common name of lithium-nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide with a very similar structure to lithium cobaltate. Among them, nickel, cobalt and manganese can be balanced and regulated in terms of specific energy, recyclability, safety and cost. The different configuration of nickel, cobalt and manganese will bring different properties to the material: the increase of nickel content will increase the capacity of the material, but it will make the cycle performance worse; The existence of cobalt can make the material structure more stable, but too high a content will reduce the capacity. At the same time, the main source of cobalt is Congo, and the market is in a monopoly position, which is subject to the unstable supply of cobalt, resulting in higher costs. The existence of manganese can reduce the cost and improve the safety performance, but if the content is too high, it will destroy the layered structure of the material. Therefore, it is the focus of ternary material research and development to find the proportion relationship of the three materials to achieve the optimization of comprehensive performance.
According to the proportion of nickel, cobalt and manganese, the common ternary cathodes in the market at present can be divided into NCM523, NCM622, NCM811 and other types (the last three digits represent the proportion of nickel (n), cobalt (c) and manganese (m) respectively, for example, the proportion of nickel, cobalt and manganese in NCM523 is 5: 3: 2). NCM523, which accounts for 30.8% of nickel, is called "middle nickel ternary". Similarly, NCM622 and NCM811 have nickel contents of 37.3% and 50.7% respectively, which can be called "middle high nickel ternary" and "high nickel ternary". Because the mass proportions of nickel, cobalt and manganese are different, the performance of the above-mentioned ternary cathode materials also has its own advantages and disadvantages. For example, NCM523 has a low energy density, but the overall cost performance is high; NCM811 has obvious advantages in energy density, but the process threshold is higher and the manufacturing is more difficult. Therefore, in terms of market share, NCM523 with higher comprehensive cost performance accounts for a larger market share. According to Xinyi information data, the market share of ternary cathode corresponding to NCM523, NCM622 and NCM811 will be 53%, 20% and 22% respectively in 2020.
Ferrous lithium phosphate-low cost+low performance = high cost performance. The way to break the situation in Ferrous lithium phosphate lies in technological breakthrough.Ferrous lithium phosphate is one of the most commonly used lithium ion cathode materials besides ternary materials. Compared with ternary cathode, it has better safety and lower production cost, but the corresponding battery energy density is lower and the battery attenuation is more serious in winter. Ferrous lithium phosphate’s theoretical specific capacity is 170mA/g, and its voltage platform is 3.7V V. It has good thermal stability, small hygroscopicity and excellent charge-discharge cycle performance in a fully charged state, and the superimposed manufacturing cost is low, which has become the focus of research and production development in the field of power lithium-ion batteries except ternary materials. However, due to the limitation of its own structure, the lithium ion battery with LiFePO4 as cathode material has poor conductivity, slow lithium ion diffusion rate, poor discharge performance at low temperature and low energy density. As a representative of "low cost+low performance", lithium iron phosphate batteries have long been used in low-end and cost-effective vehicles. Nowadays, BYD blade batteries have been installed on Han EV and other vehicles. The length of blade batteries is more than 0.6m, and they are arranged together in an array and inserted into the battery pack like "blades". On the one hand, it can improve the space utilization rate of the power battery pack and increase the energy density. On the other hand, it can ensure that the battery cell has a large enough heat dissipation area to conduct the internal heat to the outside, thus matching a high energy density. Blade battery has achieved relatively higher energy density and relatively moderate manufacturing cost through module-free integration, while taking into account other performances such as heat dissipation.
A00-class cars pull Ferrous lithium phosphate, while middle and high-end cars pull ternary materials. The two cars realize differentiated competition, and the market share game will continue.Judging from the total market share, ternary material positive battery and Ferrous lithium phosphate positive battery occupy almost all of the market share. According to the data of China Automobile Power Battery Industry Alliance, the number of vehicles loaded with ternary material positive battery and Ferrous lithium phosphate positive battery reached 54.05GWh and 53.21GWh respectively from January to October 2021, which increased by 100.1% and 316.4% respectively compared with the same period last year (the first October), and the growth rate was very rapid. At the same time, Ferrous lithium phosphate performed better, and its market share increased rapidly. The ratio of installed capacity (ternary material positive battery/Ferrous lithium phosphate positive battery) decreased from 2.11 in the same period last year to 1.02 this year. Our explanation for this phenomenon is that medium nickel ternary is commonly used in A-class cars, high nickel ternary is commonly used in B-class and C-class cars, while Ferrous lithium phosphate is mainly used in A00-class mini-cars. By comparing the market share of ternary and C-class new energy vehicles, it can also be confirmed that the market share of Ferrous lithium phosphate and A00-class cars is highly correlated, and the market share of Ferrous lithium phosphate is equally highly correlated. Therefore, the lithium iron phosphate battery benefited from the mini-car becoming the main force in the electric vehicle market, and the overall prosperity increased significantly, quickly seizing the market share. However, in essence, the overlap between the target users of ternary material positive battery and Ferrous lithium phosphate positive battery is still not high, and the market of the two batteries has achieved misplaced development, so the installed capacity of the two batteries will continue to be high in the future.
Positive head continues to gather, paying attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited supply chain.Judging from the competition pattern, the market share of ternary cathode and Ferrous lithium phosphate cathode continues to move closer to the head. According to the data of GGII, Xinyi Information, lithium research and so on, the top ten manufacturers of cathode materials in 2020 are German Nano (Ferrous lithium phosphate, 9%), Rongbai Technology (ternary materials, 8%), Betray (Ferrous lithium phosphate, 8%), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (Ferrous lithium phosphate, 6%) and Tianjin Ba Maw (ternary materials, 6. Due to the obvious head effect of power battery, according to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, GGII and other institutions, the market concentration of power lithium battery manufacturers in 2020 is 74%, 84% and 93% respectively, and the supply chain enterprises of head manufacturers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (with a global market share of 29.9% in 2021H) and BYD are worthy of attention.
(2) Negative electrode: pay attention to the profit increase caused by the capacity gap in the short term, and pay attention to the non-carbon material leader in the long term.
Artificial graphite is the main material used as the negative electrode of power lithium battery.The negative electrode is the carrier of lithium ions and electrons in the battery charging process, which plays the role of energy storage and release. Therefore, the following factors must be taken into account when selecting the negative electrode material: first, the material selected as the negative electrode must meet the requirement that the redox potential of lithium ions in the negative electrode matrix is as low as possible; second, the intercalated compound should have good electronic conductivity and ionic conductivity, and the intercalated compound has good chemical stability in the whole voltage range, so as to ensure that the battery can maintain higher energy density and stability while operating normally. From the classification of elements, we can divide the existing anode materials into two categories: carbon materials and non-carbon materials, in which the carbon materials include graphite materials (natural graphite, artificial graphite and mesophase carbon ball) and other carbon systems (hard carbon, soft carbon and graphene). Non-carbon materials can be subdivided into titanium-based materials, silicon-based materials, tin-based materials, nitrides and metallic lithium. Compared with other materials, artificial graphite is the mainstream choice in the market because of its good cycle performance, superior safety, mature technology, easy access to raw materials and low cost. According to information disclosed by GGII, the market share of artificial graphite products will reach 84% in 2020. Other anode materials, such as silicon-based anode, failed to achieve the expected growth due to the switch of main shipment models of domestic cylindrical battery products and the delay in upgrading the high-nickel system of square power batteries, and the market share declined.
Graphitization accounts for the largest proportion in the manufacturing process, and graphitization of electricity price is the main cost. It is estimated that the power consumption cost per ton of artificial graphite cathode is as high as 8750-10500 yuan.The traditional artificial graphite process is divided into four parts: first, pretreatment, that is, according to different products, graphite raw materials and asphalt are mixed in different proportions, put into an air flow mill for airflow milling, and the raw and auxiliary materials with a particle size of 5-10 mm are milled to 5-10 microns. The second is granulation, that is, the middle is put into the reaction kettle, which is electrically heated according to the temperature curve. After that, the volatile gas in the reaction kettle is pumped out by the fan, condensed by the condensation tank, and the liquid phase is condensed in tar form. The gaseous waste gas is led out by the fan, filtered by activated carbon and evacuated. The third is graphitization-graphitization of the granulated materials. Usually, this step adopts outsourcing mode, which is the main cost in the whole production process. Fourthly, ball milling and screening: the graphitized materials are transported to a ball mill through vacuum, physically mixed and ball milled, screened with a 270-mesh molecular sieve, and the undersized materials are inspected, measured, packaged and put into storage. The traditional manufacturing industry of artificial graphite anode materials has a heavy attribute, and the cost mainly lies in the upstream labor cost and electricity charge. According to Shanhe Intelligent Announcement, the power consumption of crucible Acheson furnace, box furnace and continuous graphite furnace is about 10,000-12,000 kWh/ton, 7,000-8,000 kWh/ton and 5,500 kWh/ton, and the current industrial electricity charge is 1.025 yuan /kWh in peak hours and in normal periods.The power consumption cost of Qi’s corresponding production process is 8750-10500 yuan/ton, 6125-7000 yuan/ton and 4813 yuan/10,000 tons respectively. If the annual production capacity is 10,000 tons, the annual cost of pure electricity for the preparation of artificial graphite is about 87.5 million to 105 million yuan.
The scale of domestic enterprises is "going out to sea", and the competitive situation of manufacturers is still there.From the perspective of domestic market structure, according to the data disclosed by GGII, in 2020, the top five domestic companies in the market share of anode materials for power lithium batteries are Betray (China market share is 20%), Shanshan (16%), Putailai (17%), Kaijin Energy (13%) and Xiangfenghua (7%), and domestic market manufacturers present "three big and many small" competition. According to GGII data, the top five companies in the global market share of anode materials for power lithium batteries in 2020 are Putailai (global market share 12%), Betray (10%), Shanshan (10%), Kaijin Energy (7%) and Pohang (5%), and the scale of China enterprises is "going out to sea". As the negative electrode material has not yet entered the technological innovation cycle, the barriers to participation are mainly production capital, and the technical barriers are lower than those of the positive electrode material and the power lithium battery in the downstream of the industrial chain, so the competitive situation of manufacturers is still there.
Short-term attention to limited production capacity will boost the profit growth of head enterprises, and long-term attention will be paid to the long-term growth of non-carbon materials.On the one hand, in a short period of time, the state has increased the policy of double control of energy consumption, and strictly controlled projects with high energy consumption and high emissions. Under the system of "double control" of energy consumption, high-energy industries such as graphitization of anode materials bear the brunt. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, it is stipulated that the profiling equipment, roasting equipment and production line of ordinary and high-power graphite electrodes in the autonomous region, and the production line of graphite electrodes below 600 mm in diameter will all be withdrawn in principle before the end of 2021, so the production capacity of artificial graphite negative electrodes will decrease in the short term. At the same time, because the graphitization process in the production process of artificial graphite anode is mostly outsourced, manufacturers with high market share and high self-sufficiency in graphitization process will benefit from this under the negative electrode capacity gap. On the other hand, although the large-scale production technology of artificial graphite is quite mature, its current technical conditions are close to its theoretical specific capacity of 372mAh/g, which is difficult to meet the market demand for large-capacity lithium-ion batteries. At present, carbon-silicon anode materials have not been applied in a large scale, and the development of silicon-based anode technology of most manufacturers is still in the conceptual stage. However, from a long-term perspective, new technologies such as silicon-based anode with higher gram capacity are worthy of attention.
(3) Diaphragm and electrolyte: The era of solid-state batteries is far from over, and there is still the last journey of demand.
It is difficult for solid-state batteries to have an impact on the diaphragm and electrolyte market in a short period of time.In the current lithium battery technology path, liquid lithium ion batteries occupy the mainstream. Among them, separator and electrolyte are the key materials of lithium-ion battery. The performance of separator determines the interface structure and internal resistance of the battery, which directly affects the capacity, cycle and safety performance of the battery. The separator with excellent performance is of great use to improve the comprehensive performance of the battery. Electrolyte, as an important medium to ensure that the working ions move at a certain rate between the positive and negative electrodes during the charging and discharging process of the battery, thus forming the whole circuit loop to generate current, also has great influence on the overall operation efficiency and safety of the lithium battery. However, from the technical point of view, the path of solid-state battery is likely to have an impact on liquid lithium-ion battery in the future. The cathode materials used by the two are the same as the cathode materials, and the working principle of the battery is basically the same. However, the liquid lithium-ion battery uses liquid electrolyte, while the solid-state battery is replaced by solid polymer electrolyte, which can play the role of electrolyte and diaphragm at the same time, so electrolyte and diaphragm are no longer needed in the real solid-state battery. Compared with traditional liquid batteries, solid-state batteries have certain advantages in safety performance and energy density. If this technical path is fully realized, it will replace the existing diaphragm and electrolyte market. However, judging from the current development status of solid-state batteries, the technical concept is greater than practical and the production cost is too high. In recent years, it is difficult for solid-state batteries to become the mainstream technical solution in the market, and it is difficult for solid-state batteries to have an impact on the diaphragm and electrolyte market in the short term.
With the high nickel ternary lithium battery path, wet diaphragm manufacturers are expected to usher in a second growth.Lithium battery separators are generally divided into dry process and wet process according to the process. Dry diaphragm is a method to produce high-oriented polypropylene or polyethylene film with low crystallinity by producing hard elastic fiber, and a film with high crystallinity is obtained during high-temperature annealing. Wet diaphragm is to mix liquid hydrocarbon or some small molecular substances with polyolefin resin, heat and melt to form a uniform mixture, then cool down for phase separation, press to obtain a diaphragm, then heat the diaphragm to a temperature close to the melting point, stretch it in two directions to orient the molecular chain, and finally keep the temperature for a certain period of time, and elute the residual solvent with volatile substances, so as to prepare interconnected microporous membrane materials. In terms of physical and mechanical properties, the separator produced by dry uniaxial stretching process has more advantages, but the separator produced by wet production process has higher porosity and good permeability, which can meet the requirements of high current charging and discharging of power batteries and has better performance. At present, most lithium iron phosphate batteries in power batteries use dry separators, while most ternary lithium batteries use wet separators. At present, the demand for wet separators caused by the increase in installed capacity of ternary batteries is increasing, and Ferrous lithium phosphate is upgrading. High-end lithium iron phosphate batteries have a tendency to switch from dry separators to wet separators. Generally speaking, wet separators with relatively good performance will more likely become the mainstream technology path.
The difference of electrolyte products is small, and the competitiveness of manufacturers mainly lies in the bargaining power brought by market share and industrial chain monopoly.As the "blood of lithium battery", electrolyte is used to conduct electrons between the anode and cathode in the battery, which is an important guarantee for lithium-ion batteries to obtain high voltage and high specific energy. According to the data disclosed by Yingcai magazine, according to the cost ratio, the solvent accounts for about 30%, the lithium salt accounts for about 40-50%, and the additive accounts for about 10-30%, among which the solute and solvent costs account for a large part, resulting in a small difference in electrolyte products among manufacturers. Head manufacturers cooperate with many upstream electrolyte manufacturers to ensure the stability of raw material procurement demand. Under the competitive pattern of electrolyte industry with highly concentrated market share, The competitiveness of manufacturers mainly lies in the bargaining power brought by market share and industrial chain monopoly. Head and large suppliers can obtain good business environment and profitability for a long time under the condition of good market prosperity.
Fundamentals run before valuation, and in the pre-solid-state battery era, the market share is large.From a fundamental point of view, the upstream diaphragm electrolyte grew strongly. The GAGR of Enjie, Xingyuan Material, Tianci Material and Xinzhoubang were 66.5%, 4.2%, 315.4% and 90.4% respectively, corresponding to the PE(TTM) increase of -9.4%,-36.3%, -22.7% and-38.7% respectively. Based on the current development status of solid-state batteries, the technical concept is more than practical, and the production cost is too high. In recent years, it is difficult for solid-state batteries to become the mainstream technical solution in the market. In the short term, it is difficult for solid-state batteries to have an impact on the diaphragm and electrolyte market, and attention should be paid to leading upstream manufacturers with large market share.
(1) Hydrogen fuel cell: the market has not moved, the policy moves first, and it runs with electric technology.
The series connection of fuel cell and motor is the core of realizing hydrogen energy power for automobile.Fuel cell is an energy conversion device, which directly converts chemical energy stored in fuel (i.e. hydrogen) and oxidant into electric energy according to the working principle of primary battery. Through the cooperation of hydrogen fuel cell and motor, the automobile can be replenished with hydrogen and converted into electric energy to drive the automobile motor, thus realizing the energy conversion. Compared with the traditional electric vehicle, the fuel cell technology enables the vehicle to retain the advantages of good driving performance and comfortable ride, and also has unparalleled advantages such as fast energy replenishment and long cruising range, which takes into account the advantages of both electric vehicles and traditional power vehicles to some extent.
PEMFC benefits from the hydrogen car market, and its installed capacity occupies a dominant position in all kinds of batteries.Proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) refers to a fuel cell solution with platinum-based electrodes using water-based acidic polymer membrane as its electrolyte. PEMFC battery can operate at relatively low temperature and can customize the electrical output to meet the dynamic power demand, so it is the most commonly used battery solution for fuel cell vehicles. Its main advantages are obvious: fast start-up of power generation reaction, low requirements for operating conditions (no need for extreme high temperature), and direct use of air as oxidant (no need to add pure oxygen separately). According to "Review of Fuel Cell Industry 2020" published by E4tech, a website of ERM Group, the installed capacity of various fuel cells in the world will reach 1,318.7 MW in 2020. Among them, PEMFC, DMFC, PAFC, SOFC, MCFC and AFC have market shares of 1029.7, 0.4, 132.2, 147.5, 8.8 and 0.1 respectively, and the corresponding market shares are 78.1%, 0.1%, 10.0%, 11.2% and 0.7% respectively. Among them, PEMFC benefited from the hydrogen car market, accounting for 78.1% of the installed capacity market, and rapidly increased from 341.0 MW in 2016 to 1029.7 MW in 2020.
Domestic fuel cell shipments have increased rapidly, but the overall scale of the fuel cell market is not large due to the small demand for hydrogen energy vehicles.According to the statistical data of monthly database of fuel cell vehicles published by GGII, the installed capacity of hydrogen fuel cell system in China is about 79.2MW in 2020, down 37% year-on-year. Among them, the total installed capacity of hydrogen fuel cell system on buses is about 71.7MW, up 46% year-on-year. At present, the top five domestic fuel cell manufacturers in China are Edelman, Yihuatong, Guohong Remodeling, Exploration Automobile and Weichai Power, respectively, accounting for 20.1%, 15.4%, 11.9%, 11.6% and 10.0% of the market share of shipments, while other manufacturers account for 31.0% of the market share.
Policy overweight, long-term perspective, hydrogen energy technology will be the first alternative path of electric energy.Hydrogen, as an energy source, reacts with oxygen in the air, which brings power to the automobile and only produces water vapor. It is the most ideal emission reduction technology, without worrying about the carbon dioxide emission from the downstream automobile engine to the upstream power generation process, and can better achieve the goals of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. Therefore, in recent years, the technical path of hydrogen energy vehicles has been strongly supported by national policies. During the two sessions in 2019, hydrogen energy was written into the "Government Work Report" for the first time. Subsequently, the release of the demonstration application policy for fuel cell vehicles and the release of the development plan for the new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035) all injected impetus into the development of the hydrogen energy industry. In addition, in recent years, many provinces and cities have also issued the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" to promote the development of hydrogen energy industry. On the whole, hydrogen energy technology will be the first alternative path of electric energy in the future. With the encouragement of policies, the pace of hydrogen energy industrialization is expected to accelerate.
(2) Skateboard chassis: "Four-wheel drive" chassis integration technology is expected to redefine the car.
Skateboard chassis is born out of non-load-bearing body technology, and the car is redefined as "car = chassis+shell", which promotes the computerization of electric vehicle manufacturing.Rivian, recently led by Amazon and Ford, has received extensive attention in the US stock market. After listing, its market value is close to 100 billion US dollars, and it has become the third largest car company in the world after Tesla and Toyota without selling a car. Rivian’s concern mainly comes from its new chassis form-namely "skateboard chassis" technology, which is expected to redefine the car. Skateboard chassis is born out of non-load-bearing body technology, which is a general chassis scheme that can reduce the burden of vehicle development. The main engine factory only needs to make the upper body part, and the lower body part can be stretched into the required adaptive layout by using the characteristics of free adjustment of skateboard chassis, so as to realize "car = chassis+car shell", that is, skateboard chassis manufacturers such as Rivian and Pixmoving integrate all components such as motor, battery, transmission system, electronic control system and suspension system into skateboards. If the skateboard chassis technology is popularized, in the future, the main engine factory will not focus on the development of automobile mechanical properties, but turn to software development and overall product design to promote the computerization of electric vehicle manufacturing technology.
The technical barrier of skateboard chassis is not high, but it is high in market barriers, so we pay attention to the domestic head electric main engine factory.On the one hand, the underlying technology of skateboard chassis is not complicated, mainly because of the integration of battery, motor, electronic control and traditional mechanical parts, and the technical barriers are not high. But on the other hand, contracting the chassis and electrical machinery system of the main engine plant is equivalent to grabbing the profit share from the main engine plant, which is higher in market barriers. Therefore, the skateboard chassis technology will be initiated by BYD and other head electric vehicle main engine plants with battery and electronic control system manufacturing technology in China.
Part III: Prospect.
China’s auto market still has a long-term growth potential under the background of double domestic demand.With the improvement of GDP per capita, the total size of China automobile market will still have some room for development in theory by 2035. As a kind of high-priced consumer goods directly linked to per capita income level and marginal propensity to consume, automobile industry prosperity is highly related to national economic operation. On the premise that infrastructure construction and automobile purchase policy are at the same level, passenger car sales and per capita GDP show a highly positive correlation. According to the data of the World Bank and the International Automobile Manufacturers Association (OICA), we can make a regression analysis on the number of vehicles purchased per capita in the top 20 automobile consuming countries in the world in 2019 and the per capita GDP of each country. There is a strong linear relationship between them, which can be approximately regarded as a positive proportion relationship.
According to Professor Lin Yifu of Peking University, China’s per capita GDP will reach 23,000 US dollars in 2035, so the most optimistic estimate is that there is still about twice the space in China’s automobile market.Adopting a relatively conservative estimation method, we take the per capita GDP of 20,000 US dollars as the expected value of per capita GDP in 2035. If other factors are not considered, the per capita GDP of China will still double by 2035, based on the sales of 25 million passenger cars in 2020. Therefore, in this way, under the most optimistic and ideal conditions, China’s passenger car consumption market will have the potential of 50 million cars per year in 2035. However, this growth space is only a theoretical possibility, and many factors such as purchase restriction, urbanization and infrastructure construction remain to be seen. As some large and medium-sized cities show no signs of greatly relaxing the purchase restriction policy, and the urbanization expansion is gradually slowing down, it is highly probable that the automobile consumption will increase slowly at a slower rate than the economic growth rate in the long run. Therefore, the double growth space of annual automobile sales and the consumption potential of 50 million vehicles can only be regarded as the theoretical limit of the China market by 2035.
According to the road map analysis of industrial planning, the new energy market will account for 50% in 2035, and the annual sales scale of new energy vehicles such as hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and hydrogen fuel cells will reach 10 million.According to the contents of the Technical Roadmap of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles compiled by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in October 2020 and organized by the China Automotive Engineering Society, by 2035, China’s new energy vehicle market will account for more than 50%, energy-saving vehicles will be fully hybrid, and the automobile industry will be electrified. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 (January-October) was 2.31%, 4.45%, 4.95%, 5.96% and 14.23% respectively. In August, September and October of 2021, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 19.78%, 19.47% and 18.24% respectively. Taking the data of 2019 before the epidemic as the seasonal fluctuation benchmark, we predict that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 is expected to exceed 2.8 million, corresponding to a market share of about 14.8%, and the market share will expand by about three times if the target is 50%. Cars are just like liquor industry, and new energy vehicles are just like sauce wine. The liquor industry peaks with the total amount, but the market share of sauce wine is rising continuously.
From the supply side, China’s passenger car market is now divided into three parts: traditional car companies, new car upstarts and new car-making forces.We divide the OEMs that participate in the China automobile market into three categories. First, traditional car companies, that is, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Toyota and other traditional car companies with a history of 100 years. At present, traditional car companies are facing various pressures such as technical upgrading and policy constraints, and are seeking electrification or hydrogen energy transformation based on their own years of car-making process accumulation. Second, the upstarts of automobiles, such as Xiaomi, Midea and Huawei, are big names in 3C and home appliances industries, and now they frequently enter the market to build cars. For example, Midea entered the upstream auto parts market in May, 2011. The newly-developed products cover five categories of products in three major systems: assisted (automatic) driving, thermal management and motor driving, including driving motors, electric compressors, electronic water pumps, electronic oil pumps, electronic power steering motors and other parts, and have been applied to the automobile industry of the bureau horizontally according to their own development endowments; Huawei entered the field of intelligent cockpit by building ——Huawei Inside, an in-vehicle system, and opened up its own 3C industrial ecological closed loop through the integration of Huawei HI with HarmonyOS OS operating system. Third, the new forces of car-making, namely, Weilai, Tucki and other emerging domestic and foreign electric vehicle manufacturers, have risen strongly through Internet-style product design.
Traditional car companies and new forces are merging with each other.On the one hand, the three forces have their own advantages, and now they have formed differentiated competition. On the other hand, traditional car companies and new car-making forces are merging with each other to learn from each other’s strengths. Because the new energy vehicle technology is quite different from the traditional fuel vehicle technology, the core technologies involved in the production of fuel vehicles, such as gearbox and engine, and the first-Mover advantage of traditional car companies in the new energy field no longer exist, the new forces of car-making and traditional car companies return to the same starting line, and competition stimulates their potential. In the long run, traditional fuel car companies should learn from the innovative spirit of new energy car-making forces, and new car-making forces should learn from the technical accumulation of traditional fuel car companies.
At present, the energy-saving technical route is relatively mature and easy to practice, but it still cannot completely solve the carbon emission problem.Automobile industry, as an important place of traditional fuel use, is the key direction to achieve the overall goal of carbon reduction in China. At present, there are three main technical paths for the automobile industry to achieve emission reduction: one is to produce more energy-efficient cars and directly reduce carbon emissions; The second is to achieve centralized management of carbon emissions through electric vehicles, and then manage power generation methods to achieve emission reduction; Third, hydrogen energy vehicles, through technological innovation to achieve theoretical absolute cleanliness. Each of the three methods has its own advantages and disadvantages.
Electric vehicles have become the mainstream in the three major technical paths, and China has the "curve advantage".First, electric vehicles can get rid of energy dependence. Today, China is the largest oil importer in the world, importing more than 400 million tons of crude oil every year, accounting for nearly 70% of China’s total oil consumption. However, electric technology only depends on power generation, and with the popularization of nuclear power and hydropower, the energy security problem will be alleviated; Second, China’s electric vehicle technology still has a "curve advantage", and now China has developed a relatively complete and high-tech new energy industry chain.
In the long-term perspective, the two paths of hydrogen energy and electric energy run together, and the winner of the technical path is king.Although hydrogen fuel cell is pollution-free and efficient, it is expensive and does not have practical conditions in low-end vehicles. In the short term, the hydrogen energy policy is overweight, and hydrogen energy technology will be the first alternative path of electric energy. With the encouragement of the policy, the pace of hydrogen energy industrialization is expected to accelerate, and the market’s expectations for future hydrogen energy application scenarios are more clear. But in the long run, promoting hydrogen energy at the national level is a "two-legged walk" behavior, and more attention should be paid to the correct technological path for investment.
The technical path dispute between lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary material battery has arisen again, but in fact, the user overlap between them is not high; Grade A00 uses lithium iron, which is ternary for middle and high-end vehicles.According to the loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary material battery in the first ten months of 2021, the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery has increased rapidly, once surpassing ternary material battery (the ratio of ternary material positive battery/Ferrous lithium phosphate positive battery installed capacity has dropped from 2.11 in the same period last year to 1.02 this year). However, this should not be understood as a competition of technical paths, and the overall overlap between lithium iron phosphate batteries and downstream users of ternary material batteries is not high. On the one hand, ternary material batteries have high energy density and high cost, and are suitable for middle and high-end vehicles with high horsepower and long battery life. Except for a few products (BYD blade batteries), most lithium iron phosphate batteries have low cost, low energy density and severe winter recession, and are suitable for entry-level and low-cost A00 or A0 vehicles. The two achieve differential competition, and the phenomenon that the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary material batteries is divided into two parts will continue in 2020.
The "double integration" policy includes NEV integration and CAFC integration, which correspond to two emission reduction paths respectively.Double points include new energy vehicle points (NEV points) and average fuel consumption points (CAFC points) of passenger car companies. Car companies can earn NEV points and CAFC points by producing new energy vehicles and fuel-efficient vehicles. If car companies fail to meet the assessment criteria, they can make up the points in three ways: carry-forward-car companies can use the points left in the previous year in proportion; Countervailing-the subsidiaries of the same group use the points of each other’s balance; Purchase-if the first two methods are not enough, you can only buy two kinds of points from other car companies on the "double points" trading website of the Equipment Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology every year. However, due to the imperfect trading mechanism and small trading market, the price of points is high.
It is suggested to promote the integration of "double points" trading and carbon trading as soon as possible, and tackle the emission reduction of the automobile industry.The automobile industry has always been an important place for energy conservation and emission reduction, and achieving the goal of "30 60" will surely tackle the problem. At present, the integral transaction between car companies is directional one-to-one transaction, and the information asymmetry is serious, so the market efficiency is low, which leads to the failure of price signals; At the same time, because carbon emissions are materialized into points, the circulation range is framed between car companies, which limits the liquidity of points to a great extent and also limits the effectiveness of the market. Therefore, we should try to promote the integration of "double points" trading and carbon trading, solve the problem of market effectiveness, and promote the automobile industry to complete the revolutionary transformation of energy by market means.
From the perspective of market concentration, the waist competition of the new energy automobile main engine plant is fierce, and the "double leading" pattern of the head is basically stable.In the first ten months of this year, the competition pattern of the main manufacturers of new energy vehicles (including electric and plug-in hybrids) was more than two-the "double-leading" BYD (with a total sales of 410,801 vehicles, including BYD Tang DM, BYD Han EV, BYD Qin PLUS DM, etc.) and Tesla (with a total sales of 349,397 vehicles, The main Model S include Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X, etc.), SAIC-GM-Wuling (341,757 vehicles, the main model is Wuling Hongguang Mini EV) and Great Wall Motor (97,966 vehicles, the main model is Euler Cat). In 2019, 2020 and January-October 2021, the automobile sales volume CR5 of new energy vehicle enterprises was 59.5% respectively. The shock of this market concentration should be seen in two aspects. On the one hand, the "double leading" pattern of Tesla and BYD’s new energy vehicle enterprises is basically established, and their respective consumer markets and shares are basically stable; On the other hand, the competition among non-head manufacturers is fierce. The products of Wuling and Great Wall are all low-priced models such as Mini EV, Euler Black Cat and Euler Good Cat. The market share is greatly affected by the product strength and price of a single product, so the market share of a single car company is not stable. On the whole, the waist competition of the main engine factory is fierce, and the head "double leading" grid is basically stable, and this trend is expected to continue in the next few years.
Although there is still a large market growth space for new energy vehicles and power lithium battery tracks in the long term, it is still worthy of attention whether the added value of the industry matches the valuation growth in the short and medium term.From a long-term perspective of five or even ten years, there are three ways for the industrial chain of new energy vehicles and power lithium batteries to continue to expand their market share: first, to expand the total automobile market, but according to analysis, although the marginal recovery in the short term, it is unlikely that the automobile market will explode; The second is to expand the proportion of new energy vehicles in the total number of vehicles. Now this situation is happening, which is the only increment of new energy vehicles and power lithium battery tracks; Third, the market share of battery manufacturers’ installed capacity has increased, that is, it is difficult to have a trend change in the short term by continuing to strengthen the monopoly position of head manufacturers. In the short and medium term, the possibility of exponential growth of triple factors of new energy vehicles and power lithium battery track has been weakened, so we should be alert to the valuation risk in the short term. Whether the added value of the industry matches the valuation growth is still worth discussing. In the short and medium term, the technology growth track, especially the industries and tracks such as new energy vehicles and power batteries, has accumulated a lot of gains. The track has been relatively crowded, and the historical valuation water level of many companies is close to 80% or even more than 90%. Once the internal liquidity is not too loose and the external liquidity is slightly tightened, there may be a valuation market, and the risk is very worthy of attention.
The upstream of the new energy industry chain, especially the electrolyte and diaphragm track, is close to the end of the first curve. Although the demand still has the last journey, we should always pay attention to the technology path switching.Taking anode materials as an example, graphite is the most common and cost-effective anode material at present. However, compared with graphite anode materials, silicon-carbon anode materials have ultra-high theoretical specific capacity and lower lithium-removal potential. Under the background of increasing requirements for energy density of lithium-ion batteries and the gradual maturity of battery manufacturers in mastering high-nickel systems, upgrading graphite anode systems to silicon-based anode systems is likely to become the main direction. At present, the technical level of upstream electrode materials and electrolyte products is close to the end of the first curve. Although the demand is still in the final stage, the emergence of emerging technologies such as solid-state batteries is likely to have a devastating impact on the corresponding track and target. Investment should always pay attention to technology path switching.
First, the logic of industry valuation has changed from "cycle" to "big consumption" and "big technology".The biggest change in the automobile industry since last year is the change in valuation logic. On the one hand, the traditional "manufacturing" valuation logic of automobile enterprises has changed into "consumption" logic, and the valuation center has a positive correlation with automobile sales, and high market share brings high profit growth expectations; On the other hand, the valuation of some new car upstarts and new car-making power companies presents "scientific and technological" logic, and auto companies with high technical barriers and good product experience can get higher valuations.
Second, the second half of the energy revolution has arrived, and the development path of the automobile industry is very different.Under the pressure of climate problems, countries all over the world are relying on their own technological resources to carry out different technological path research and development. Common new energy power technologies include hybrid, plug-in hybrid, extended-range electric, pure electric and hydrogen fuel cell. China enterprises have more successful products in many fields and remain in the leading position, but only lag behind in hydrogen energy technology. Nowadays, there is still a big controversy about the two development paths of pure electric power and hydrogen energy power. Now we are also at the crossroads of energy technology development. Apple won and Nokia lost.
Third, the infrastructure revolution is coming, which will bring new opportunities for the development of the automobile industry.In 2020, the "new infrastructure" will be accelerated, and the digital upgrading of traditional industries will usher in new development opportunities. In the "new infrastructure", 5G, big data, artificial intelligence, industrial internet, etc. have all become the focus of the next stage of development, which is of great significance to the construction of smart cars, smart transportation and smart city related facilities. The application of big data and industrial Internet technology will promote the transformation of the business model of the automobile industry, and by providing assistance for the digital development of manufacturing, the digital and intelligent manufacturing level of the automobile industry can be improved as a whole. The promotion of "new infrastructure" will accelerate the innovation speed in the fields of automobile technology research and development, business model and production model, and will bring subversive changes to the automobile industry.
Source of this article: If so, Institute of Finance, Author: Guan Qingyou, Xu Bonan, original title: "Guan Qingyou Team: Outlook of New Energy Automobile Industry in 2022"
Risk warning and exemption clause
The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
Liu Yashe was interviewed by 1905 Movie Network
Group photo of Yasser Liu and Andy Lau in "Lost Orphan"
