Caijing magazine： President Putin will become Russian Prime Minister after he leaves office.

　　　 On December 17th, in Moscow, the Russian capital, Russian President Vladimir Putin (center left) and First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (center right) walked into the venue of the United Russia Party Congress. Putin said on the same day that if Medvedev is elected president, he is ready to become the prime minister of the government. Xinhua news agency

　　　　Xinhua News The online edition of Caijing magazine published an article on the 18th, arguing that how Medvedev and Putin handle the future relationship and maintain the balance of power in the power contrast will become the focus of attention of all parties in the future Russian political situation.

　　　　According to a comprehensive report by Bloomberg and Associated Press, Putin publicly agreed for the first time to be the prime minister in the future Medvedev government, and stayed in the power center of Russia in this way. At the same time, Putin also said that he would not weaken the presidential authority to pave the way for his appointment as prime minister. Putin said at the United Russia Party Congress: "If Russian citizens choose Medvedev as the new president of the Russian Federation, I will continue to work as the head of government and the distribution of power between the president and the government will not change."

　　　　Russia will hold a general election next March. There has been a strong voice in Russia asking Putin to stay in office. However, according to the constitution of the Russian Federation, Putin, who has been re-elected for two terms, will not be able to run for the presidency again. In order to stay in the center of Russian power, Putin must make a choice: either amend the constitution or adopt a flexible form to take power in other forms. At present, it seems that Putin chose the latter.

　　　　On December 10th, Putin publicly stated that he "fully agreed" with the current First Deputy Prime Minister Medvedev as the next presidential candidate. Due to Putin’s high support rate in Russia and absolute control over public resources, Medvedev is likely to succeed the next president of the Russian Federation smoothly. Medvedev immediately said the next day that if he became president, he would appoint Putin as the prime minister of the government. Putin’s statement today is a response to Medvedev.

　　　　Medvedev is 42 years old and 13 years younger than Putin. He is a close friend of Putin who was brought to Moscow from St. Petersburg. He has served as deputy director and director of the President’s Office. Since 2005, he has served as the first deputy prime minister in charge of education, health, housing and agriculture. Putin hopes to ensure his firm grasp of supreme power by supporting Medvedev as president.

　　　　On December 17, in Moscow, the Russian capital, Russian President Vladimir Putin (rear) listened to the speech of First Deputy Prime Minister Medvedev (front) at the United Russia Party Congress. Putin said on the same day that if Medvedev is elected president, he is ready to become the prime minister of the government. Xinhua news agency

　　　　Will there be a dual structure of power in Russia in the future? According to the analysis of Caijing magazine, this possibility is very small from the realistic political situation. The double-headed structure needs to be realized in a state of balanced power, but there are two imbalances in the distribution of power in Russia in the future:

　　　　The first is the imbalance in the form of power distribution. In the power structure of the Russian Federation, the president is in an absolute core position. The Prime Minister and other cabinet ministerial posts are appointed by the President, who also has the right to dissolve the government at any time. More importantly, under the current legal framework, powerful state departments such as national defense, foreign affairs and security agencies are directly responsible to the President rather than the Prime Minister. In this way, if Medvedev becomes president, he will occupy the core position of power in form.

　　　　Another imbalance exists between Medvedev and Putin. Putin is undoubtedly a strong political power among the two, with an absolute high support rate in government departments and the private sector; Medvedev’s support rate largely comes from his support for Putin. In addition, Medvedev has never worked in a powerful department, which makes him lighter in the balance of power between them.

　　　　In addition to these two points, Putin’s trump card also includes the United Russia party, which has an absolute majority in parliament. Under the leadership of Putin, the party just won 63.3% of the votes in the State Duma (lower house of parliament) election on December 2, winning 315 of the 450 Duma seats in one fell swoop. Since the State Duma has the power to amend the constitution and impeach the president, the absolute majority of the United Russia Party in parliament provides Putin with a tool to curb the president’s power.

　　　　With Putin’s promise not to change the current power structure, there may be a "weak" president with nominal power and a "strong" prime minister with actual strength in Russia in the future. How Medvedev and Putin deal with the future relationship and maintain the balance of power in the power contrast has become the focus of attention of all parties. (Reporter Zhao Hang)

Editor: Fan Jing