Crazy gold has once again shown a correction. Should it be bought or sold now？

　　Chinanews. com April 13 th (Zhongxin Finance reporter Zuo Yuqing) Gold fell!

　　On April 12, the international gold price that once broke through the $2,400 mark plunged in intraday trading, and London spot gold closed down 1.25% to $2,343.29 per ounce; COMEX gold futures closed down 0.53% at $2,360.2 per ounce.

　　Affected by this, on April 13th, the domestic gold jewelry price dropped. On that day, the gold jewelry price of Lao Fengxiang was 737 yuan/gram, and that of Chow Tai Fook was 736 yuan/gram, which was about 10 yuan/gram lower than the previous day.

　　International closing price of gold and silver on April 12.

　　What happened?

　　On April 10 -12, the gold price, which had maintained an upward trend before, took a roller coaster ride.

　　On the evening of April 10th, the latest ——CPI data, the most critical inflation data before the Federal Reserve’s May resolution, was released. The CPI of the United States rose by 3.5% year-on-year in March, which was higher than the market expectation of 3.4%, which means that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in June decreased.

　　After the data was released, the international gold and silver prices fell briefly. However, the US PPI growth rate of 2.1% in March announced on the evening of 11th was slightly lower than expected, and the chain growth rate slowed down to 0.2%, which made gold and silver "rebel" again.

　　From April 11th to 12th, the international gold price returned to the upward trend. On the 12th, COMEX gold reached a maximum of $2,448.8 per ounce; Spot gold in London once reached $2,431.78 per ounce, both hitting record highs.

　　However, just as COMEX gold and London spot gold both broke through the $2,400 mark, several Fed officials said that the interest rate cut would be later than previously expected.

　　Federal Reserve official Collins said that it is now expected that the Fed will cut interest rates later than previously expected. Federal Reserve official goolsbee pointed out that the United States is in a contradictory environment, and the Fed must reduce the inflation rate to the target level, and many inflation data are higher than expected. He does not want to impose restrictions on the actions that the Fed may take in future meetings; Federal Reserve official Daley believes that at present, the Fed is moving towards the goal of reducing inflation to 2% as gently as possible, and there is no urgency to cut interest rates.

　　The voice of Fed officials made the re-rising gold dive again at a high level. London spot gold once rose by nearly 2.5%, but then plunged sharply, with a daily decline of 1.25% to $2,343.29 per ounce; COMEX gold futures once rose more than 3% in intraday trading, and finally closed down 0.53% at $2,360.2 per ounce.

　　The skyrocketing gold deviates from "common sense"?

　　It is worth mentioning that the previous skyrocketing performance of gold was regarded as deviating from "common sense".

　　Some insiders believe that gold and the US dollar are rarely "competitive" with each other, reflecting the long-term hidden concerns of the US dollar credit.

　　In January this year, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a report that the total amount of U.S. Treasury bonds reached $34 trillion for the first time, five years ahead of the previous forecast of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. Some foreign media pointed out that this indicates that it will face political and economic challenges in improving the balance sheet of the United States in the next few years.

　　The expectation of interest rate cuts in the United States is not convincing: since 2023, the frequent revision of non-agricultural data in the United States and the impact of part-time jobs on data have reduced the market’s trust in non-agricultural data; At the same time, although the US CPI data exceeded expectations, the US PPI data released in March on the evening of the 11th suspended inflation anxiety.

　　In addition, under the geopolitical influence and high interest rate environment, the continuous purchase of gold by global central banks is also regarded as an important factor affecting the trend of gold.

　　Huatai Securities’ collection team believes that the central bank’s purchase of gold not only reflects the recognition of the safe-haven nature of gold, but also shows the concern about the stability of the traditional monetary system under the continuous expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.

　　So, does this mean "the collapse of the dollar credit system"?

　　Pan Helin, an economist, told Zhongxin Finance that the US dollar will remain an international currency for a long time to come. "The gold standard cannot return, so the performance of gold price is the cyclical performance of the US dollar, and it is affected by the cyclical fluctuation of risk-free interest rates."

　　Buy or sell?

　　"Gold will prove itself"-this is a ridicule from gold holders. However, how much room for gold to rise after a "violent" callback? Should investors buy or sell?

　　Industrial Securities pointed out that the general public accounts for a relatively high proportion of gold investors, and professional investors and the public are divided in their perception of the value of gold investment. The judgment of global central banks on the value of gold will include political factors, but if the price of gold deviates too much from the actual value, central banks will also consider the cost and risk of allocating gold.

　　Zhongxin Finance noted that although the price of gold fluctuated in the short term, the scale of several gold ETFs such as Huaan Gold ETF, Bosera Gold ETF, E Fund Gold ETF and Cathay Pacific Gold ETF has reached a record high. According to third-party data, from March 1 to April 12, gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs attracted more than 12 billion yuan.

　　On April 12, Shanghai Gold Exchange issued an announcement, announcing to increase the margin ratio of gold deferred contracts, the price limit and the margin of performance-guaranteed inquiry contracts. At the same time, investors are reminded to do a good job in risk prevention, control their positions reasonably and invest rationally to ensure the stable and healthy operation of the market.

　　Pan Helin believes that it is more likely that the Fed will postpone the interest rate cut at present, but the persistence of the continued rise in gold prices still exists, because although the Fed may delay the interest rate cut, it is inevitable that interest rates will peak. (End)