Under the new cycle of 2023 cold year, how can the air-conditioning industry fight the ＂value upgrade war＂？

On August 24, 2022, the "Windless Aerobic TAN Origin Traceability – 2022-2023 China Air Conditioning Industry Summit Forum" was held in Harbin under the guidance of China Household Appliances Association and sponsored by China Home Appliances Network.CC,Haier, Highly,Hisense, Kelon, Konka, Leader, Meibo,beautiful,Panasonic,TCLRepresentatives of mainstream household air-conditioning brands and core component manufacturers, as well as forumsexclusivechannel partnerJD.comHome appliances, data support agency GfK Zhongyikang, etc. gathered together to talk "double carbon"The innovative development and mission of the air-conditioning industry under the goal."

High temperature "heating" air conditioner market

Although autumn has begun, many places in China are still under high temperature during the "end" stage of the "dog days".How to cool the body and the heart? The air conditioner is obviouslymostA good choice. Therefore, in the "roasting" mode, refrigeration appliances represented by air conditioners ushered in a high-temperature "hot period" in July and August. According to GfK Zhongyikang monitoring data, the retail sales and retail sales of air conditioners in the online market in July increased by 41.6% and 44.6% year-on-year respectively. Entering August, the retail sales and retail sales of air conditioners in the online market in the past two weeks increased by 76.0% and 79.4% year-on-year respectively; the offline market volume and volume also achieved a year-on-year growth of over 20%. Such asbeautiful,HaierOaks,Hisense, Kelon,TCL,PanasonicMany air-conditioning companies, such as Meibo, Changhong, and Konka, have reported to China State Grid that during the peak air-conditioning season in the past two months, there are many high-temperature days and a wide range of coverage, and the sales of the company’s air-conditioning products have increased significantly compared with before. "The installation masters are running at full capacity," said the relevant person in charge of the air-conditioning company.

However, the staged bright performance of the air conditioner market is in sharp contrast to the cold industry in the first half of the year and even the entire 2022 cold year. According to GfK Zhongyikang data, in the first half of this year, the retail volume and retail sales of the household air conditioner market decreased by 20.1% and 14.1% respectively year-on-year; in the whole 2022 cold year, the retail volume and retail sales of the air conditioner market were 43.57 million units and 150.50 billion yuan, respectively, down 15.0% and 9.2% year-on-year. "The economic downturn and epidemic directly affect the income level of consumers, so the consumer confidence index decreased year-on-year." In the opinion of Peng Xiandong, general manager of GfK Zhongyikang’s large home appliance division, this directly affects consumers’ expectations for the home appliance market and the execution of purchasing power. The corresponding air conditioner is also affected and has declined significantly. In addition, air conditioners have further entered the existing market, with less new demand. Based on this, Peng Xiandong judged that the air conditioner industry will enter a low-speed era in the next two years, with incremental scarcity. The market core will shift from the pursuit of scale to the pursuit of quality.

Peng Xiandong, General Manager of GfK Zhongyikang Home Appliances Division

Wang Lei, secretary-general of the China Household Appliances Association, also believes that this is the result of multiple factors. Including the repeated regional epidemics across the country in the first half of the year, which put pressure on the industrial supply chain and had a negative impact on the demand for air conditioners; in addition, the real estate industry is also a factor strongly related to the demand for air conditioners; furthermore, the more important objective factor is that the popularity of household air conditioners has basically reached a high level. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of air conditioners owned by 100 households in China reached 117.7 units by the end of 2020, of which 149.6 were owned by 100 households in cities and towns. " At present, the social stock of air conditioners in the country has reached 540 million units, and the stock update has become the main body of current and future market consumption demand. This has a direct and long-term impact on the size of the air conditioner market. "

Wang Lei, Secretary General of China Household Appliances Association

Seeking "new" kinetic energy under the stock

When the industry enters a new development stage dominated by "stock replacement", in terms of the external operating environment, as analyzed by Wei Lai, Chief Research Officer of Zijin Tianfeng Futures, raw material prices, which account for more than 85% of the cost of air conditioners, are getting rid of the traditional cyclical framework and reshaping into a new cycle, corresponding to the reshaping of the cyclical characteristics of air conditioners at both ends of cost and consumption. Under the characteristics of the new cycle, the market prospect of air conditioners is still broad, but it needs to seek new growth momentum inward.

So, where is the new way to break the growth? Perhaps, as described by Wang Lei and various air-conditioning companies – intelligently empowered, more energy-saving, comfortable, healthy, and high-end air conditioners will bring more enthusiasm and demand from consumers, and will also bring impetus to the technological progress and product innovation of the air-conditioning industry and industry. Recent consumer street research by China Home Appliance Network also shows that price is no longer the main factor in determining consumers to buy air conditioners. When considering "replacing" air conditioners, most consumers focus on products with more energy-saving, intelligent, comfortable, healthy and other functional characteristics. Such as fresh air conditioners, global windless air conditioners, washing air conditioners, sterilization health, self-cleaning air conditioners, sleep air conditioners, etc. are all their favorite products.

The change in consumer demand is reflected in the retail end, according to GfK Zhongyikang data, 2022 cold year, the new level of energy efficiency air conditioning sales in the online channel accounted for about 67.9%, the proportion of offline reached 78.7%; fresh air air conditioning online penetration rate of about 2.3%, an increase of 283%, offline penetration rate of about 6.7%, an increase of 59.5%. JD.com platform data also shows that in the first half of the year, the turnover of JD.com platform fresh air conditioners was 5.5 times that of the same period last year, and fresh air conditioners also showed characteristics higher than the broader market by 32%; during the "618" period, the turnover of JD.com platform fresh air conditioners increased by 460% year-on-year; JD.com home appliances "815" anniversary peak period of 28 hours, the turnover of fresh air conditioners increased by more than 4 times year-on-year. " The JD.com platform always takes consumer demand as the first starting point. "Zhang Yiming, marketing director of JD.com’s home appliance air conditioner business department, said that through active market research, JD.com home appliances and various air conditioner brands work closely together, with the same perspective. They all believe that the new air conditioner in the new product may be the next growth point of the industry." Combined with the trend of purification and health, the increase in fresh air volume will be more suitable for the needs of life scenes. "

At the enterprise level, it can be seen that more air-conditioning companies are also launching products with corresponding functions or even complex functions through technological innovation to meet the diverse, personalized and quality consumer needs of consumers. Taking Casarte air conditioners as an example, at the meeting, Yan Bo, general manager of Casarte air conditioners, introduced that due to the different air pain points faced by different climates and seasons, Casarte innovatively launched the luxury version of Yunding air conditioners. "The positioning of this product is’original ecological air maintenance expert ‘, hoping to achieve the maintenance of people, the maintenance of the environment, and the maintenance of high-end lifestyles through air conditioning. Overall, what we want to do is to pass on the high-end, comfort and wisdom of Casarte air conditioners to consumers."

Midea air conditioners are also working to increase the average price of the entire industry through air conditioner products that highlight health, comfort, and intelligence. Oaks, Hisense, TCL, Konka, Panasonic and other related air conditioning brands are focusing on the fresh air track, such as Oaks launched a four-season fresh air air conditioner that can change fresh oxygen in the whole house for 1 hour, Hisense launched a high-end air environment from six dimensions such as temperature, humidity, wind feeling, purification, etc. Brilliant C200, TCL launched a small blue wing II with a large fresh air volume of 60 cubic meters per hour without secondary wall punching holes, Konka launched a smart fresh air conditioner with dual-drive hybrid fresh air system, Panasonic Anchor Health and Smart launched a series of alcohol air, etc. They all meet consumers’ needs for a healthier and more comfortable home life experience through differentiated fresh air conditioners. Kelon Air Conditioning customizes more convenient, comfortable and healthy sleep solutions for users by creating smart sleep air scenes. In addition to home split machines, Meibo Air Conditioning has found sub-sectors such as wearable air conditioners and vehicle air conditioners to seek differentiation. Changhong Air Conditioning has built a healthy living atmosphere for consumers through the creation of a fresh environment with years of accumulation of dust-free technology.

As a company specializing in thermal management and environmental control, Invik has accumulated rich technical experience in the field of precision environmental control. Wang Xiangdong, general manager of Shenzhen Invik Health and Environment Technology Co., Ltd., believes that at present, "health" should be the main breakthrough in air conditioning innovation. In this regard, EBC Yingbao advocates "safe and healthy comfort is the real comfort", and advocates fundamentally solving the comfort problem of the air environment under the premise of safety and health, and is a one-machine solution to the air environment problem. "Our air environment machine adjusts or removes the temperature, humidity, cleanliness, various pollutants, microorganisms and other indicators of the air environment dynamically, harmoniously and synchronously through multi-dimensional phase control technology, and is committed to providing customers with a safe, healthy and comfortable air environment."

It can be seen that the product evaluation dimension based on factors such as energy conservation, health, and comfort is becoming the core driving force for the reform and upgrading of China’s air-conditioning supply side. Therefore, the three major product trends in the air conditioning industry in 2023 proposed at the summit forum, namely the "energy-saving" product trend represented by Midea Xuanyao 2-horse hanging machine, Oxmos Fresh Air Pro air conditioner, Kelong Sleeping Small Ear LZ air conditioner, and Meibo Xinxinpai intelligent AI voice air conditioner; the "comfort" product trend represented by Casarte connoisseur air conditioner system, COLMO TURING household central air conditioner, Hisense Bright series fresh air conditioner, Konka smart fresh air conditioner, and Commander BIGGER air curtain air conditioner; and the "health" product trend represented by Haier washing air cabinet hanging air conditioner, EBC Yingbao pure air environment machine, Panasonic alcohol air conditioner, and Changhong guest restaurant shared air conditioner, which has been highly recognized and affirmed by the guests and industry colleagues They all anticipate that these three major product trends will become a new engine for the growth of the air conditioning industry in the upcoming 2023 new cold year.

"Double carbon" engine drives green and high-quality development

In fact, whether it is the driving effect of extreme weather on air-conditioning consumption, or the pursuit of new energy conservation, health, and comfort at the enterprise level under the leadership of stock replacement, it can be made clear that changes in the environment, market changes, and demand are forcing air-conditioning enterprises to step up innovation and development, transformation and upgrading, and also put forward new and higher requirements for the high-quality development of the air-conditioning industry, that is, the air-conditioning industry and enterprises should be socially responsible and consumer-responsible enterprises and products.

According to the IEA report, the global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2018 were about 34.20 billion tons, of which the global energy consumption of air conditioners and fans accounted for about 3.8% of CO2 emissions. It is expected that by 2050, the energy demand for space cooling will increase more than threefold. There is no doubt that the green and low-carbon transformation of the air conditioning industry is imperative.

But objectively speaking, the green and low-carbon development of the air-conditioning industry still faces no small challenges. "For the refrigeration and air-conditioning industry, under the background trend of’dual carbon ‘, the biggest challenge is that the reduction of HFCs conventional refrigerants may bring corresponding quota problems, which may directly affect the operation of an enterprise." Li Tingxun, an associate professor at Sun Yat-sen University, believes that the future control of HFCs consumption, production or quota management may directly impact the development of the air-conditioning industry. So, how can the air-conditioning industry achieve carbon emission reduction? In Li Tingxun’s opinion, on the one hand, it is necessary to improve energy efficiency. At present, the energy efficiency of air-conditioners has increased by 15%, and it may increase by another 15% in the future by 2030. On the other hand, based on the carbon emissions directly caused by refrigerants, it is necessary to choose and develop more environmentally friendly refrigerant alternatives. In this regard, the only sure opportunity is that low GWP refrigerants will have a large application in the future. In addition, materials, production, transportation, warehousing and other links will also directly or indirectly lead to carbon emissions, so air-conditioning related companies also pay attention to the carbon emission reduction of the whole life cycle of air-conditioning products.

"Compared with other manufacturing industries, I personally think the energy saving and carbon reduction of the home appliance industry has advantages." Xie Nanan, director of the environmental and dual-carbon business department of the General Technology Inspection and Testing Group, analyzed that the reason is that the home appliance industry has implemented the trade-in policy more fully, and the improvement of energy efficiency of home appliances is to reduce energy consumption from the source. In addition, the intelligence of home appliances is a systematic improvement, which is to consider the improvement of energy efficiency from an overall perspective. In addition, there is still more room for expansion in the green and low-carbon transformation of the home appliance industry, such as the control role of the supply chain, energy consumption in the production process, energy structure adjustment, and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emission reduction of refrigerants such as HFCs, which are worthy of attention and active promotion by home appliance companies such as air conditioners.

As Li Tingxun and Xie Nanan said, energy efficiency is only one part of low carbon, and to maximize carbon reduction, it is necessary to go through the whole life cycle of air-conditioning products. In this regard, more and more air-conditioning companies, including Midea, Haier, Oaks, and Hisense, have begun to focus on promoting green and low-carbon transformation at the manufacturing level or within the whole life cycle of air-conditioning products. Take Midea as an example. In 2021, Midea Group officially released a green strategy, focusing on six pillars: green design, green procurement, green manufacturing, green logistics, green recycling, and green services, to build a whole-process green industrial chain. " Among them, green design is the leader and traction of the entire green strategy. "Li Jinbo, director of the development center of Midea’s Air Conditioning Innovation Research Institute, said that in recent years, Midea’s air conditioners have accumulated rich technical and product innovation practices in green design. In terms of green technology, it has continued to lay out in environmental protection refrigerant technology, global ultra-high energy efficiency technology, new generation refrigeration technology, and cold storage and heat storage technology." Midea’s air conditioners will continue to expand the supply of green products through technological innovation, product innovation, and standard guidance, to meet the growing needs of users for a better life, and to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the whole industry. "

Compressor companies, which are the core products of the upstream supply chain of air conditioners, are also actively promoting the green transformation of the industrial chain. For example, CMCC mentioned that building a green industrial chain and promoting the green design of parts and components, including miniaturization and low noise, are all future development directions of GMCC. Haili compressor also said that whether it is from environmentally friendly refrigerant substitution, energy efficiency improvement, including flattening and miniaturization, Haili compressor has always been serving the air conditioning industry and continues to move forward around the green and low-carbon development direction.

It is worth mentioning that at the meeting, Wang Lei and Lv Shenghua, editor-in-chief of China Home Appliances Network, led all the air-conditioning-related enterprises and industry guests to issue the "Green Energy-saving Air Conditioning Replacement Initiative" to the air-conditioning industry – actively responding to the national "double carbon" strategy and the 2022 National Home Appliance Consumption Season activities to promote the quality of green smart air conditioners, increase varieties, and create brands; industry organizations, upstream and downstream industries give full play to their respective advantages to promote a new round of "trade-in" and "home appliances to the countryside" work, promote the upgrade of air-conditioning consumption in an orderly manner, and continue to lead the trend of quality, greening, and intelligence of air-conditioning consumption. This move undoubtedly further sounded the clarion call for the green and low-carbon